In this video I talk about the correlation between comic book values and interest rates. I know right?! Gonna be a good one! LOL. But in all seriousness with the recent CPI report talking about inflation only dropping to 6.4% after it was expected to drop to 6.2%, you have to wonder if we are going to get a higher interest rate then the expected 5%. If that does happen then I suspect we won’t be seeing any record high prices for a couple years. There tends to be some correlation between the values of comics when the interest rate goes up and down. The good news is, the floor hang pretty tough. I break it all down in todays video and give my thoughts looking forward.
Hope you guys enjoy the video!
00:00 – Intro
01:54 – CPI Report – Effect On Comics?
04:27 – Interest Rates Correlation On Comic Values
11:00 – ”Swag, In English Please” – Where Will Values Go From Here?
14:54 – Conclusions
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Foreign [Music] Welcome back to another video with Swagoz I want you guys to know that that little Spin maneuver This is now my third take and I’m Feeling a little bit dizzy but it’s okay We’re gonna keep going with it we’re Gonna continue on with the intro and we Gotta talk about today’s video today’s Video Is US checking in you know just checking The pulse on the market where are we are We out of the woods are comic books out Of the woods because I don’t know about You guys but not just in comic books I’m Feeling a lot of Subtle exuberance in a lot of the Collectible worlds in the markets and a Lot of the other markets you know the Crypto world the stock world the real Estate World everyone’s feeling kind of Good you know here early in 2023 and in This video I kind of wanted to ask the Question you know our clear skies ahead Are we really out of the woods and so in This video I want to dig into some of The numbers look at some lines charts And graphs with you guys here today talk A little bit about Market sentiment I Know what you guys are thinking you’re Thinking oh God here we go here we go We’re going to do another video where
Swaggle house goes in and looks at a Bunch of lines charts and graphs don’t Worry I’m not going to get super dense With it you know it’s going to be really Really condensed I’m going to make it Fun we’re going to have you know good Time here I won’t get too long-winded You know and then by the end of it I can Actually give some thoughts and some Good takeaways at least call it like I See it and share it with you guys and Then you guys can make your own decision But remember this is not fine Financial Advice I have more dark Hawk books on my Watch list than Spider-Man books in my Collection think about it but before I Get into the video if you guys could Drop me a like or comment or subscribe If you’re enjoying the content help Support the channel doing those things I’d appreciate but let’s get into this Video here today now I think the big Thing to start with is to talk a little Bit about the news coming out of this Week where we got the CPI report this Month and I think the main thing to talk About is really how inflation uh while It is still coming down it only dropped By 0.1 percent which is lower than what The expectations for the markets were Actually going to be and if you remember You know my index video where I was Talking about you know we had an up Month here in January and I think that
Had a lot to do with the fact that what The market was predicting was going to Happen with CPI inflation interest rate Hikes Etc you know that was in lockstep With what was actually occurring or what The FED actually did what Jerome Powell Actually decided to do and as long as There was that predictability of what is Happening in those markets you know then The market is going to feel good about It because the only thing that the Market is really afraid of is Uncertainty and even if we are going Down even if our things are trending Down or interest rates are going up you Know the market it feels fine if they Know what is actually coming and what Was coming was actually what was coming But Now we got this new report and the Inflation didn’t drop as much as the Market had been thinking it was going to Drop and now we have different Predictions you know being made of what The rest of the year is going to look Like so what does that have to do with Comic books well I think it has a lot to Do with comic books because what you’ll See in this video is that there’s Actually a lot of correlation between Inflation interest rate and what the Values of comic books are and again Correlation does not equal causation but In this particular video I’m going to
Use causation to prove my point so let’s Kind of show you guys this little chart Right here this is the inflation report Now it does feel like inflation peaked In June of 2022 we had it at 9.1 percent And every month since then it has been Going down but this recent January Inflation report at 6.4 percent as you Guys can see right here is still higher Than what the market had anticipated That it would go to going down to 6.2 Percent which kind of means you know you Know if I give it a little bit of an Analogy it’s like you know the first 20 Pounds that you lose on your weight loss Journey is a lot easier to lose than Then those last five pounds where you Want to get to your target weight and so That kind of you know calls into Question okay is the interest rate Hiking gonna need to be a lot longer Than what was normally anticipated you Know we were thinking that we were going To get a couple more interest rate hikes For the next couple months that would Bring us to five percent and then we Would hold at five percent you know from Here on out through the rest of the year And then maybe we can start to turn the Money printers back on and then comic Books can go to the Moon again but that Doesn’t seem like that’s going to be the Case and ultimately where am I going With all this well I think the history
Of the interest rate has a lot to do With what we can see with the values of Comic books and I want to just show you Guys a few comic books uh specifically Fantastic 448 Iron Man number one Fantastic 452 and Incredible Hulk 181 to Show you guys the values and how they’ve Had correlation to whatever the interest Rate hikes actually were so let’s start Here from 2007 to 2008 during the Housing market crash when the interest Rate was actually 4.75 percent and went Down to two percent and I just kind of Want to show you guys the general value Ranges for these four books right here At these grades that I picked out which You know just have a higher volume at a Price range that is you know attainable For most collectors so we have Iron Man Number one at an 8-0 we have fantastic 448 out of 7-0 we have fantastic 452 out Of 7-0 and we have Incredible Hulk 181 At a 6-0 and let’s start with Iron Man Number one so we said that the interest Rate was getting cut from 2007 to 2008 And I just kind of want to highlight Some of these numbers right here just to Show you the high value and the low Value but generally speaking in 2007 you Can see that this was a high of 500 and A low of 230 and then 2008 as the Interest rates were getting cut you know Went to 800 on the high and 330 on the Low now granted Iron Man number one came
Out in that particular year but this is Why I’m going to show you a bunch of Different books right here so let’s look At Fantastic Four 48 2007 the high was 511 the low was 284. this one actually Went down a little bit the high well 480 And the low of 222 and 2 2008 that was Actually the reverse of Iron Man coming Off of the Fantastic Four film now let’s Take a look at Fantastic 452 this is When the book was absolutely worthless But here you see a high of 114 and a low Of 46 and then the next year in 2008 a High of 126 and a low of 96. so this one Actually did go up as interest rates Were coming down and then lastly Incredible Hulk 181 we see in 2007 a High of 500 a low of 309 and then in 2008 a high of 600 and a low of 300. so Generally speaking depending on how you Want to look at it it might be a little Bit inconclusive obviously it is an Extremely small sample size but you know If you look at other grades of comic Books if you look at some of the other Books in that window not just those four What you do generally see is that books Did slightly Trend up in 2008. seemingly Due to the fact that there might be some Correlation between interest rates and What the comic book Market is doing Because it is sort of a speculative Asset and when you have more money in The system than the speculative assets
Uh definitely go up in value now we have To talk about you know coming off the 2008 financial crisis you know comic Books actually did have slight downturns For a lot of their value ranges where You can actually see you know 2009 2010 And 2011. you know the highs actually Got lower than 2008 obviously this is Iron Man again we’re talking about we’re Coming off the Iron Man movie but you Can see the high in 2009 was 625 the High in 2010 was 652 and then the high In 2011 was 500 and then if you go over To the lows which I also think is Interesting the lows were 287 275 and 360. so while the lows did come down Slightly they did kind of hold generally Speaking and the highs are really the Ones that got hurt and I think that That’s something that we’re going to see Time and time again if we look at ff48 We can see in 2009 to 2011 the highs Basically stayed stagnant if not you Know tapered off a little bit where the High was 480 in 2008 then the high was 416 in 2009 2010 406 2011 417 and then The floor value 263 198 240 was still I Would say somewhat similar to the 222 of 2008 but hold on to that thought because I’m going to talk about that in a second I think that that’s really one of the Bullish scenarios I want to point out to You guys is that the floor prices even In tough Economic Times held pretty well
Overall it’s really the highs that Suffered in a lot of these markets uh at Those particular times now I want to Focus on what the Fed was doing in 2015 To 2018 because it was in 2015 when they Started to raise interest rates once Again and then at the end of 2018 that’s When they actually started to cut again So they went from uh 0.25 in 2015 all The way up to 2.25 percent in December Of 2018 and again let’s take a look at Some of the window ranges for these Particular comic books so if we’re Looking at 2015 to 2018 what do we see The highs of 2015 for Iron Man number One are 800 835 and 2016 820 in 2017 and Then 900 in 2018. so you know we’re kind Of just generally sitting around the Same range as the interest rates are Being raised similarly if you look at Some of the floor values you see in 2015 550 you see 2016 537 532 and then 650 Here in 2018. so if you’re looking at This from a bird’s eye view in my Opinion these macro economic headwinds Kind of kept the values for this thing In check in this particular set of years Now similarly you can see sort of the Same data when you’re looking at the Ff48 book we’re here in 2015 you see the Highest 776 then the next year it’s Roughly around 700 and then the next Year it’s around 9 20 and then you know If we’re looking at some of the floor
Values 502 454 381 all kind of sitting In the similar window and then what do You see here in 2018 you see a massive Spike up in this number of 2300 and I’ll Talk about that in a second because you Know once we get to the top of the next Year that’s when the interest rates Start to cut again similarly here for The Black Panther book you see in 2015 Through 2018 generally speaking 900 925 985 so you know slightly on the uptick 500 555 527 again the floor holding Pretty steady overall but again you have These macro economic headwinds going Against it preventing the book from Going to the Moon specifically and then Here in the credible Hulk 181 2015 1525 1640 1680 the floor price is basically 1 000 and then at the end of 2018 you see It jump up to 32.17 and again that has a Lot to do in my opinion with the fact That the interest rate hikes started to Get cut again specifically you’re seeing It here in August of 2019 that had the First interest rate cut but you know We’re talking about eight months of Interest rates being stable or at least Maybe the FED at that time was Announcing hey we’re not going to be Raising interest rates anymore and that Caused you know the turn in what the Values are in the markets here and you Can see once you had the interest rates Getting cut again that’s really when a
Lot of the books of 2019 through 2020 Really started to raise their floor Values overall again here for all these Books you can see that the numbers Really start to escalate in 2019 and 2020 and these of course are values that We’ve seen in the comic book book Indexes here granted this is an Extremely small sample size but I do Think it’s something that is really Interesting to talk about and how we can Sort of you know discuss where we think The values of comic books will be uh you Know in the next six months maybe the Next 12 months maybe the next 18 months Really what I tend to see and again Correlation does not equal causation but What I tend to see is that there is a Correlation between the values of comic Books and what is going on with the you Know interest rates and what the FED Decides to do with it you can clearly Conclude as long as there’s money in the System then there’s more money to be Thrown around into you know risk on Assets you know and basically I think It’s fair to say that comic books are Risk on assets you know a lot of these Speculative things are going to get Infused with cash if there’s a lot of Cash out there so as we talk about what Is currently going on what this current Inflation report has to do with the Comic book Market well it does seem like
You know so long as there is going to be Interest rate hikes there’s going to be Headwinds against the values of comic Books now the good news is that if you Look at some of those you know windows That we had looked at for some of those Books you know and again these are the Key books that we’re talking about uh Generally speaking you know the the Blue Chip ones that people tend to want the Floor values held pretty well overall in Fact use I still think even with some of Those interest rate hikes year over year The values of comic books have steadily Been able to go up in spite of some of The tough economic things that you were Seeing out there in the market now I do Think that it’s interesting that in 2010 There was kind of a delayed effect from The 2008 crisis where comic book values Did go down you know about 20 percent in Some of those instances but even in Those situations if you spend as much Time as I have looking at numbers on GPA Data you will see that generally Speaking the floor values for most key Books tend to hold you know I think that That’s really the important factor as we Think about some of the prices and you Know what we might decide to purchase You know here going on in the future but Bringing it back to the inflation report And the Fed rate and all that stuff uh You know with this newest CPI report it
Does seem like If the Fed has to Continue to raise interest rates you Know their plan for for now was to get To five percent but if their plan is to Go to five point five percent or six Percent or whatever they have to do if They have to keep going because you know It’s it’s tougher to cut that last you Know uh five pounds or so from the Inflation fat you know in our body Weight analogy here uh then that is Going to create or prevent comic books From be able being able to hit record High prices you know you’re just not Going to be able to flip you know books Like you did in the same way any book That you want to invest in or spec on It’s going to take a three-year window At this point because as we kind of see In some of these values and some of These numbers it’s really when we get to The point where there’s interest rate Cuts where there’s you know an infusion Of cash into the system that the values Of comic books are going to be able to Hit Peak record prices or new Peak Record prices again I’m speaking in Generalities here of course there’s Going to be you know the random outliers That have record sales here and there There’s going to be you know a Creature Commandos book that sets a record price There’s going to be a golden age book That sets a record price because all it
Takes is one sale and one person to do It but if there’s a high volume of books Out there for a copper H book you know As we’re talking about you know how are We going to get that floor value to you Know generally speaking set their new Record prices it’s going to take you Know liquidity in the system now there Is the elephant in the room that you Know we’re talking about uh obviously The pop culture effect all these numbers Are coming from a point where there was You know the MCU and the MCU of course Has some effect and you can definitely Make the argument out there that the MCU Is on the downtrend and that is probably A little bit of a factor but I think if We’re talking about you know the general Comic book Market I still think that These elements have probably more to do With comic book values than the actual Pop cultural influences that you know Actually affect you know a day-to-day Sale but once again bringing it back to The point of the video are we out of the Woods yet I’m not really sure we are out Of the woods so to speak although I do Think that we’ve probably found our Floor you know I think that for the most Part if you’re somebody out there who’s Making purchases on books that again Like I always say is slightly above you Know 10 above the 2020 price 15 20 I Think that you’re generally doing you’re
Generally speaking going to do pretty Well now the top part of this is again Those high-end sales that I was talking About you know as long as we have these Headwinds you know you’re just not going To be able to flip that book right You’re not going to be able to you know Buy whatever book you know correlates to Whatever movie is coming out and you Know six months from now uh make you Know a 50 return on that flip you’re Gonna have to hold it for three years That is really what it comes down to so That makes it tough now of course if You’re out there and you’re hunting These books you know you make your money When you buy if you find a great deal on A book you know if you go to Grandma’s Garage sale and you know you rip off Grandma buying her you know silver Age Collection for 30 cents on the dollar Then absolutely you’re going to make a Great return on that but generally Speaking you know you can’t just go into Heritage auctions say uh Kang the Conqueror is you know obviously The Next Big Thing by Avengers eight and then you Know next month or whatever when he Shows up once again in Loki you know Flip the book for 2x it’s just not going To happen anymore you’re going to have To wait for Secret Wars which again has Less to do with him being in secret Wars And has more to do with the fact that
That movie comes out in 2025 and 2026 When we in all likelihood are going to Have interest rate cuts and that’s Really when there’s going to be more Liquidity in the system and comic book Values are going to be inflated as a Result of that anyways that’s all I got For this video I don’t know if anyone’s Watching at this point anymore I Probably bored everyone in my audience Today but I do think that this is really Important information uh I thought that It was you know interesting to see some Of these correlations and I do think That it has a lot to do with what we see In the values in the market again are we Out of the woods I’m not necessarily so Sure that we’re totally out of the woods Yet but I do think that the floor prices For the key books will generally Speaking hold at the levels that we’ve Discussed here on the channel many times Before anyways that’s all I got for this Video drop me a like comment subscribe What do you guys think are we out of the Woods where Comic Book prices going I Don’t know maybe everything’s going to Zero I got I’m just I I don’t know I’m Done I’m selling bye